Abstract:
Traffic injuries and deaths are a sobering reality on roads throughout Virginia and the
United States. Numerous traffic incident studies have been conducted focusing on the
spatial distribution and clustering of the identified locations; however, many of these
studies do not take into account other environmental factors that change over time (i.e.
land cover and site characteristics) and that may have an effect on the number of
incidents. In this research, a linear referencing and spatial statistical analysis is
performed to identify correlations between changing land cover patterns, site
characteristics, and traffic incident patterns along travel corridors within Culpeper,
Orange, and Spotsylvania counties in central Virginia. Traffic incident data from 1990 to
2007 and land cover data was referenced to the road network to compute changes in
distribution of incidents over the 18 year period. It should be understood that land cover does not directly cause traffic incidents; rather the adjacent land cover is one of several
factors that play a role in distracting drivers or increasing traffic volumes. The results
show an increase in the number of incidents occurring within suburban and urban areas
and a small increase in the overall fatally rate. In addition, the number of incidents in
agricultural and forested land cover areas steadily increases over the time period, as well;
however, the fatality rate decreases over time. By understanding the relationship between
land cover changes, site characteristics, and traffic incidents, it is hoped that this
information can be used in conjunction with traffic and land use planning to either
prepare for future land use changes or to identify problem areas that may lead to
increased traffic incidents.
